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The very first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Given that the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the market has begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the hypothetical limit for a brand-new booming market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we taking a look at a brand-new bull market or is this a bearish market rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a small rally prior to another plunge?
To address this question, let’s comprehend what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The implication is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the rate has been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Hence, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits exceeded expectations: Many investors were fretted that as stocks dropped, this recession would likewise be reflected in their earnings report. However, the reports were not almost as bad as many feared.
Investors are hoping for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed treking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is concerned that this is happening too soon, prior to the needed economic goals have been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place typically, and this has indeed been a big one. Compared to the three previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which normally occur before the one that is sustainable gets here and starts the next bull market. We are currently in the fourth rally, and some healings require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearish market rally. History shows that we might have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though big, is not unprecedented.
Inflation needs to boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next booming market, we need to see a sustained decline in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity rates falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market beginning to weaken. Regardless of these signals, we will require to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still may not encourage the Fed that it is time to halt interest rate hikes.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the complete effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain positive that we might have seen the bearish market reach its bottom but at the same time careful about the current rally being the sustainable healing that will result in the next bull market. For that to occur, inflation still needs to come down.