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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Considering that the start of the second half of the year, the market has actually begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the theoretical threshold for a new booming market.
When we see this rally, our primary question is: are we looking at a brand-new bull market or is this a bearish market rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a little rally before another plunge?
To address this question, let’s comprehend what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier belief: The ramification is that the market has reached its bottom as the cost has actually been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Therefore, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits surpassed expectations: Many financiers were worried that as stocks plunged, this downturn would likewise be reflected in their earnings report. The reports were not almost as bad as many feared.
Financiers are wishing for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed treking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is worried that this is occurring too soon, before the necessary financial goals have been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen frequently, and this has indeed been a huge one. Compared to the 3 previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand out:.
The a great deal of bear rallies which normally occur prior to the one that is sustainable shows up and starts the next bull market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some healings have needed 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearish market rally. History shows that we might have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though big, is not unprecedented.
Inflation must boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next bull market, we need to see a continual decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity prices falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to weaken. Despite these signals, we will need to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still might not encourage the Fed that it is time to stop interest rate hikes.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the full impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain positive that we might have seen the bearish market reach its bottom however at the same time mindful about the current rally being the sustainable healing that will result in the next booming market. For that to take place, inflation still needs to come down.