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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Given that the start of the second half of the year, the market has actually started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the hypothetical limit for a brand-new booming market.
When we see this rally, our main question is: are we taking a look at a new booming market or is this a bearish market rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the market seeing a little rally before another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The ramification is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the rate has been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Therefore, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 incomes went beyond expectations: Lots of financiers were worried that as stocks plunged, this decline would likewise be reflected in their earnings report. The reports were not almost as bad as many feared.
Financiers are hoping for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is worried that this is taking place too soon, before the required financial objectives have actually been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur often, and this has indeed been a huge one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand apart:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually take place before the one that is sustainable arrives and starts the next booming market. We are currently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries require 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearishness rally. History suggests that we might have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not extraordinary.
Inflation should boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will result in the next booming market, we need to see a continual decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity prices falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to compromise. Despite these signals, we will require to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still might not encourage the Fed that it is time to stop interest rate hikes.
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We stay positive that we may have seen the bearish market reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the existing rally being the sustainable recovery that will result in the next booming market. For that to occur, inflation still needs to come down.